Stronger growth in many advanced economies as well as in developing economies led to better-than-expected momentum in the first half of 2017. World output is now projected to rise to 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, both higher by 0.1 percentage points relative to July figures. Yet recovery remains weak in many countries and medium-term risks to growth, such as tighter monetary policy, inward-looking policies, and persistently low inflation in advanced economies, among others, continue to cast a shadow over the global economy. The outlook for Developing Asia is more optimistic, with growth stabilizing instead of moderating. A rebound in global trade and strong domestic investment is benefiting regional growth, with stronger-than-expected expansions in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Japan. The region is now expected to grow by 5.9% in 2017, higher than the previous projection of 5.7%, and maintain its momentum by growing at 5.8% in 2018, up by 0.1 percentage points from the July figure. The short-term forecast for the Pacific sub region remains the same, primarily due to the retained growth outlook for Papua New Guinea, the sub region’s largest economy. Prospects for the smaller Pacific economies are mixed. Growth estimates have been adjusted downward for most of the North Pacific and small island economies, but upgraded for the South Pacific. The sub regional growth outlook for 2017 remains at 2.9% although the 2018 projection is adjusted slightly downward to 3.2%. The United States (US) economy exceeded expectations as it posted an annual growth rate of 3.0% for the third quarter of 2017. The impact of recent major hurricanes that caused massive damage in two states clouded prospects, yet sustained consumer and business spending fueled economic growth to exceed the initial forecast of 2.5%. A further decline in unemployment to 4.1% in October 2017 supported a 2.4% expansion of consumer spending in the third quarter, although spending growth decelerated refl ecting disaster impacts. Economic activity is expected to gain more momentum as the country pursues reconstruction activities during the fourth quarter.
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Edited By | Saba Bilquis |