Housing is an intrinsic component of human well being and economic development. It is both a product and a process essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ‘Sustainable Cities and Community’. It has remained a critical concern for the Government and was outlined in the Punjab Growth Strategy 2018 as the first most important issue for ‘enabling cities to become engines of growth’. Provision of adequate housing is a critical issue that requires specific attention to achieve the desired outcomes on the development strategy for Punjab.
A supply and demand analysis conducted using estimates based on the household data from the Population Census 1998 and 2017, with the underlying assumption that one household requires one housing unit (Kular, 2007), shows that at present, there is a total demand of 17.1 million housing units in Punjab. Based on this primary assumption, there is an approximate housing demand of 10.7 million housing units in rural areas and 6.4 million housing units in urban areas.
Based on these estimates, 14% of Punjab’s population is affected. If the current trends of housing stock and demand continue, the housing shortage will increase to 11.3 million housing units in Punjab in 2047. This will mean that approximately 30% of Punjab’s population will be affected. There are various factors that are highly correlated with housing shortage estimations and can assist in identifying the need for strategic housing supply. Table 11.1 shows the correlation of Housing Shortage with three independent variables; Urbanization, Net Migration & Industrial Units. Urbanization and housing shortage have a 0.75 coefficient of correlation; meaning districts with a higher percentage of urbanized land have a greater housing shortage. Similarly, these districts also have the highest levels of in-migration, which is one of the factors influencing housing demand.
Analysis of overcrowding was categorized as more than 3 persons per room or more than 2 adult persons per room following the WHO definition of overcrowding. Therefore, an objective of the policy should be to aim for 2 adult persons per room by 2047. Based on these findings, 56% of Punjab’s housing units have more than 3 persons per room used for sleeping purposes, the distribution of total People Per Room (PPR) for Rural Punjab, Urban Punjab and Overall Punjab.
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