Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements & Housing

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Document Type General
Publish Date 26/08/2016
Author
Published By European Mortgage Federation
Edited By Saba Bilquis
Uncategorized

Review of Europe’s Mortgage and Housing Markets

The European Union produced a positive GDP growth of 2.0% in 2015, thus continuing the positive progress of 2014 (1.4%). The euro area registered a growth of 1.7% in 2015. Against this background, for the first time since the beginning of the financial crisis, the aggregate Debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU and the euro area decreased by more than 1.6 pps and 1.5 pps respectively with respect to the previous year.  Overall, low oil prices, a low euro exchange rate, a supportive monetary policy as well as improved consumer expenditure due to increased disposable income contributed positively to the growth in 2015. Governments in some Member States continued loosening the fiscal consolidation policies adopted in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Despite the aggregate economic growth, a level of fragmentation remains in the EU in terms of GDP growth. However, this trend has eased in the last few years due to an improved economic environment in the EU. EU countries improved their performance in terms of GDP growth. Every country except Greece, which had a marginal contraction of 0.2%, expanded its economies in 2015. The patterns were very heterogeneous, with Ireland and Malta advancing by more than 7% and 6% respectively, while the majority of economies grew by between 1% and 2%.

House prices in aggregate terms continued the positive trend of the previous year with some exceptions. The situation among different jurisdictions remained highly fragmented, with some markets recovering, while others continued to decline. Nonetheless, the rate of decline seems to have slowed down across the board. Price developments are not only very heterogeneous between the different EU countries, but also within them. House price increases in capital cities were on average more than 10 pps higher compared to the overall situation in their countries. At one end of the spectrum, house prices in Vienna increased by nearly 60 pps more than in the rest of Austria, whereas in countries such as Bulgaria, house prices in the capital showed a decrease of more than 10  pps compared to the rest of the country. Housing supply (as measured by the number of building permits issued, housing projects begun and housing projects completed) remained roughly around the level of 2009. Building permits show timid signs of increase in the last two years. The rate of mortgage lending accelerated in 2015. Total outstanding lending in the EU surpassed in 2015 for the first time EUR 7 trillion, increasing by 3.5% y-o-y from EUR 6.7 trillion in 2014. Interest rates on mortgage loans either continued to decrease or maintained the very low interest levels of the previous years in the EU as a reaction to the expansionary monetary policy stance of the ECB and other central banks in the EU, although some timid signs of marginal rebounds have been seen in a number of countries over the course of 2015. In 2015, the ECB maintained a reference rate of 0.05% which was lowered to 0% in March 2016, in line with the overall continental trend.

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