The World Bank asked the Shimberg Center to adapt the Florida Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology (Noll et al., 1997) to Brazil. This report describes the adaptation process, presents the newly developed Brazilian model and analyzes output from the model. A brief description of the Florida model is important to understand the similarities and challenges that had to be dealt with during the adaptation process. An explanation of the Brazilian context is also necessary, particularly given the fact that tenure issues and practices in Brazil are different from conventional notions in the US. In addition, there are cultural differences that modify the way in which people consume housing. These nuances are crucial to an understanding of why certain decisions were made in the development of the Brazilian Affordable Housing Needs Assessment.

The Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology developed for the State of Florida, henceforth referred to as the Florida Model, is based on household estimates calculated from household formation rates and population-by-age projections. There are five basic dimensions of demand: tenure, age of head of household, size of household, income of household, and cost burden. Household estimates are constructed based on the assumption that household formation rates and the distribution of household characteristics remain constant across the projection horizon. The household formation rates are age specific and are derived from the most recent decennial Census.