Regional Developments in Housing Finance
• The World Population is 7.5 billion. By 2050 it will be 10 bn plus. (was One Bn in 1800, 4 Bn in 1974)
• Current average net population growth is about 130,000/day. (Interesting to see World Population Clock)
• Every second person on the globe lives in urban areas, and by 2050 three out of four (70%)
• By 2020, it is estimated that the world slum population will cross 1 bn
• The world needs 4,000 houses an hour to keep up with demand and backlog (UN-Habitat).
• Since “Serviced land” availability is limited, population density (Persons/Sq. KM) is on the rise.
• In Bangladesh, the Population Density is 1,237 (381 in 1961), while it is 28,410 in the city of Dhaka.
• In India, Population Density is 441 (154 in 1961), while it is 28,500 in the metropolitan of Mumbai.
• Almost half of the world lives on less than $ 2.50 a day, and four out of five under $ 10 a day
In view of this population and urbanization explosion:
> The percentage of people without access to decent, stable housing is rising.
> Adequate housing is vital to the health of the world’s economies, communities, and populations.
> If we are to succeed in the fight against poverty, we must support the expansion of housing both as policy as well as practice.
• Asia-Pacific represents:
• 1/4th of the world’s population, including China nearly half of the world population
• Nearly ½ of the world’s poor
• The region is faced with a massive housing shortage. The nearly entire urban shortage is in low-income category
• Awareness: Housing has become a popular political slogan.
• “Housing for all”;
• “Slum Free Cities”
• “Maang Raha hai har Insaan – Roti, Kapra, aur Makan” (Every human demands food, clothing and shelter); etc.
• Delivery: In a few countries it is SOME, but in most there is NONE Each country in the region has its own geo-socio-economic parameters, while all face a common issue of “shelterless poor
• IDB member Countries need around 8.2 mn new housing units/year. To meet this yearly demand they will need US$ 15.5 Bn/year of investment in the housing sector.*
• Need for new housing for 8 mn plus due to population growth is based on 5-5.5/HH and a population growth rate of 2.8%
• The yearly requirement of housing in the Muslim World is growing at 2.83% p.a.
• Sharia-compliant housing Finance in Muslim Countries is around 20% only.
• Muslim Population Share: Africa-53.0 %, Asia-32. 2%, Europe-7.6 %, N. America-1.8 %.**
• Urban population of IDB member countries is growing at 2.8% per year (Worldwide growth 0.5%).
• The total urban population of IDB member Countries was 731 Mn in 2010, representing nearly half of the total population of IDB member countries.
• MD to GDP ratio is highest in Malaysia (32%), and lowest in Pakistan and Egypt(below 1%).
Market Housing:
• Represents High and Middle-Income Market Segments
• Market Segment is addressed by market forces on its own without any need for state- intervention or support
• Supply is there to meet the demand
Social Housing:
• Represents lower-middle and low-income market
• Social segment needs state intervention/support to facilitate affordable housing supply and an enabling environment –LIH Segment
Housing Microfinance:
• Bottom of the Pyramid: The candidates for housing microfinance, need delivery through direct/indirect state subsidies. EWS Segment
Income Affordability:
• India: 30-40 % of household income
• Pakistan: 30-40 % of household income
• Indonesia: 30 %
• Malaysia: 30%
• Thailand: If a household earns the amount 25% of which can be paid off for housing, then the housing is said to be affordable for that household.
• Philippine: Housing is considered to be affordable if monthly amortization/ rental is PHP 264.78 (US$ 6.38) in the first decile, PHP 388.71 (US$ 9.36) in second decile and PHP 496.38 (US$ 11.96) in the third decile.
• Hong Kong: Like in the United States and the United Kingdom, Hong Kong uses the median rent-to-income ratio as an affordability yardstick for rent setting.
Cost Affordability:
Generally considered at 4-6 times the Annual Income