Global Impact would be much larger (i.e. more than USD 9 Trillion) if the pandemic spills over amid 2nd wave in the 2nd half of this year and 2021. Global growth is projected at –4.9% in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4%. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.

Pakistan is not an exception either and it is estimated that the country will face an economic loss of more than PKR 03 Trillion putting around 03 Million jobs at risk in the initial round of this novel outbreak – LSM slowed down by 41% in April’2020 relative to April’2019. Real GDP growth is projected to contract by 1.3% in FY20 as domestic and global economic activity slows down sharply in the last four months of the fiscal year. Results for domestic economy would be devastating if the pandemic spills over to FY21. Projected growth of more than 2.0% in FY21 by GOP has already been revised downward by IMF to 1% in its “World Economic Outlook Update”. GOP policy of smart lock down may bear fruits and lead to gradual recovery in FY21 provided the SOPs to overturn probable 2nd wave are followed in letter and spirit and the health care system is dealt in a calibrated way. Expected growth for FY2022 is 3.2%.