This presentation shows that Evaluating the changing role, dynamics and future of urban planning – Case of Pakistan
Evaluating the changing role, dynamics and future of urban planning
• Current Population is 7.7 billion. And by 2050 it will be 10 bn plus. (was One Bn in 1800, 4 Bn in 1974)
• Current average net population growth is about 130,000/day. (Interesting to see World Population Clock)
• Every second person on the globe lives in urban areas, and by 2050 three out of four (70%)
• By 2020, it is estimated that the world’s slum population will cross 1 bn
• The world needs 4,000 houses an hour to keep up with demand and backlog (UN-Habitat).
• Since “Serviced land” availability is limited, population density (Persons/Sq. KM) is on the rise.
• In Bangladesh, Population Density is 1,237 (381 in 1961), while it is 28,410 in the city of Dhaka.
• In India, Population Density is 441 (154 in 1961), while it is 28,500 in the metropolitan of Mumbai.
• Almost half of the world lives on less than $ 2.50 a day, and four out of five under $ 10 a day Case of Pakistan:
• In 1970, the population of Pakistan was 58 mn, and by 2019 it is 204 mn., and by the turn of the century, it is projected to be at 375 mn., while the land area will remain the same at 882,000 Sq KM.
• At a population of 58 mn in 1970, the population density was 66 Persons/Sq KM. Today it is 275
• Today, after 50 years, it is 227 Persons/SqKM Four Times increase
• By the turn of the century it will be 425 Persons/SqKM. Eight Times increase
Market Housing:
• Represents High and Middle-Income Market Segments
• Market Segment is addressed by market forces on its own without any need for state–intervention or support
• Supply is there to meet the demand- Middle and High Income Segment
Social Housing:
• Represents lower-middle and low-income market
• Social segment needs state intervention/support to facilitate affordable housing supply and an enabling environment –LIH Segment
Housing Microfinance
• Bottom of the Pyramid: The candidates for housing microfinance, need delivery through direct/indirect state subsidies. EWS Segment
• Government at federal and provincial levels: Facilitator and Enabler Role.
• Urban Planners: Integrator of Housing and Habitat Development with Urban Planning.
• Fiscal Authorities: Providers of Fiscal Incentives to LIH Developers and Material Suppliers.
• Regulatory Agencies like a central bank, building control authorities, etc: Makers and implementers of construction codes for Fiscal Authorities, Building Control Authorities, etc.
• Academia: People involved in research and development on Urban Planning, Housing and Construction Materials.
• Developers: Engaged in the development of large-scale LIH, Innovative Construction Technologies for Manufacturing Scale Production, Development models under PPP Modes, etc
• Construction Materials Industry (CMIs): Provider of standardized CMIs
• Housing Finance Companies and Commercial Banks HFCs/CBs): Providers of Diversified Housing Products, Expansion of Outreach and Financial Inclusion
• Land Agencies/Land Banks (Land): Arranger and manager of Raw Lands and Serviced Lands, enhancing the supply of lands under PPP modes.
Urbanization:
• World Urbanization in 2010 – 51%, and by 2030 – 61%, three out of four by 2050
• Cities in developing countries are expected to absorb 95 percent of the urban population growth in the next two decades, increasing the slum population by nearly 500 million between now and 2020.
Slums:
• One billion-plus people live in slums. That’s one out of seven. Unless urgent action is taken, 1.4 billion people will live in slums by 2020.
• Cities account for some 70 percent of global GDP and city slums are often economically vibrant; around 85 percent of all new employment opportunities around the world occur in the informal economy (Case of Dharavi, the Mumbai Slum).
Factors leading to increased urbanization, growth of slums, and housing shortage are:
• Increased urbanization, population growth, depletion of stock
• Changing size of persons per household (a cultural phenomenon)
• Cities growing in circles around inner circles, rather than developing new cities and satellite towns
• Preference of Low-Income Segment to live close to the place of work emergence of illegal habitat/slums
• Failure in redefining city limits with progressive Master Plans ( urban/rural re-zoning)
• Land prices that force the poor into suburbs/illegal habitats having no civic amenities, transport, or utilities, while Slums in inner circles of cities provide all these amenities-leading to slum growth.
• Deficient or absence of integrated housing and urban development function.