Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements & Housing

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Document Type General
Publish Date 28/09/2011
Author
Published By International Monetary Fund
Edited By Tabassum Rahmani
Uncategorized

Global Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust, Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis

We show that the lightly regulated non-bank mortgage originators contributed disproportionately to the recent boom-bust housing cycle. Using comprehensive data on mortgage originations, which we aggregate at the county level, we first establish that the market share of these independent non-bank lenders increased in virtually all US counties during the boom. We then exploit the heterogeneity in the market share of independent lenders across counties as of 2005 and show that higher market participation by these lenders is associated with increased foreclosure filing rates at the onset of the housing downturn. We carefully control for counties’ economic, demographic, and housing market characteristics using both parametric and semi-nonparametric methods. We show that this relation between the pre-crisis market share of independents and the rise in foreclosure is more pronounced in less regulated states. The macroeconomic consequences of our findings are significant: we show that the market share of these lenders as of 2005 is also a strong predictor of the severity of the housing downturn and subsequent rise in unemployment. Overall our findings lend support to the view that more stringent regulation could have averted some of the volatility on the housing market during the recent boom-bust episode. The global financial crisis had its roots in the U.S. housing market. Following a period of an unprecedented boom in mortgage lending, the U.S. housing market entered a downturn phase during 2006, a year that saw a sharp increase in mortgage delinquency. These problems later spilled into the financial sector by weakening the balance sheets of financial institutions. The far-reaching consequences of this housing bust have prompted a growing body of research that seeks to gain a better understanding of the drivers of this housing cycle.

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