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Document Type: | General |
Publish Date: | 2011 |
Primary Author: | Claudio Borio |
Edited By: | Tabassum Rahmani |
Published By: | www.bis.org |
Global current account imbalances have been at the forefront of policy debates over the past few years. Many observers have recently singled them out as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have helped fuel the credit booms and risk-taking in the major advanced deficit countries at the core of the crisis, by putting significant downward pressure on world interest rates and/or by simply financing the booms in those countries (the “excess saving” view). We argue that this perspective on global imbalances bears reconsideration. We highlight two conceptual problems: (i) drawing inferences about a country’s cross-border financing activity based on observations of net capital flows; and (ii) explaining market interest rates through the saving-investment framework. We trace the shortcomings of this perspective to a failure to consider the distinguishing characteristics of a monetary economy. We conjecture that the main contributing factor to the financial crisis was not “excess saving” but the “excess elasticity” of the international monetary and financial system: the monetary and financial regimes in place failed to restrain the build-up of unsustainable credit and asset price booms (“financial imbalances”). Credit creation, a defining feature of a monetary economy, plays a key role in this story. Global current account imbalances and the net capital flows they entail have been at the forefront of policy debates in recent years. In the wake of the financial crisis, many observers and policymakers have singled them out as a key factor contributing to the turmoil. A prominent view is that an excess of saving over investment in emerging market countries, as reflected in corresponding current account surpluses, eased financial conditions in deficit countries and exerted significant downward pressure on world interest rates. In so doing, this flow of saving helped to fuel a credit boom and risk-taking in major advanced economies, particularly in the United States, thereby sowing the seeds of the global financial crisis. This paper argues that such a view, henceforth the excess saving (ES) view, and its focus on saving-investment balances, current accounts and net capital flows bears reconsideration. The central theme of the ES story hinges on two hypotheses, which appear to various degrees in specific accounts: (i) net capital flows from current account surplus countries to deficit ones helped to finance credit booms in the latter; and (ii) a rise in ex-ante global saving relative to ex-ante investment in surplus countries depressed world interest rates, particularly those on US dollar assets, in which much of the surpluses are seen to have been invested. Our critique addresses each of these hypotheses in turn.