There is a wide interest in the effects of forced relocation in the context of urban restructuring. This interest is also inspired by debates on gentrification and displacement. The prevailing idea is that especially the lowest income groups suffer from displacement in terms of their housing quality and increased rents. In addition, growing shares of forced movers are assumed to harm the housing opportunities of other house seekers, while competing within the social rented sector. Although several studies deal with the consequences of forced relocation, a broader perspective on housing chances is currently lacking. Moreover, most studies are qualitative, whereas a larger-scale quantitative analysis is needed to test assumptions mentioned above. This paper addresses these matters by analyzing housing allocation data of the Haaglanden in the Netherlands and two cross-sectional surveys among forced movers in the region’s central city: The Hague. Findings indicate that housing chances for both forced and regular house seekers have not declined substantially since 2000. Moreover, most forced movers experienced dwelling progress, partly thanks to the design of the housing allocation model. However, low-educated, as well as and middle- and higher income households less often report dwelling progress. Explanations for these findings are provided.

In many Dutch cities, early post-war neighborhoods, in which low-cost social rented apartments often dominate the housing stock, are subject to considerable interventions. Middle-class and higher-income households lack attractive housing career opportunities and often leave, whereas low-income house seekers are highly dependent on these neighborhoods. This results in selective out- and in-migration of different income groups (MVROM, 1997, 2000; Van Kempen & Priemus, 2002). In 1997, the Dutch government launched a highly ambitious restructuring program to tackle the problems of early post-war neighborhoods. Demolition, sale or upgrading of social rented housing and new construction of more expensive owner occupied dwellings create more variety in the housing stock. Until 2010, almost 60,000 social rented houses in prioritized areas will be demolished and replaced with new constructed houses, mostly owner-occupied (Dekker, 2006). Just as many households are directly affected: either they are forced to move out of the area due to demolition of their own house, or they succeed in moving to other social housing in the neighborhood, whether or not upgraded or newly constructed.