Prediction of Low Cost Housing Demand
Introduction:
Among the key challenges, the construction industry sector faces are matching the supply of low cost housing demand for affordable housing. It is very crucial to predict low-cost housing demand to match the demand and supply so that the government can plan the allocation of low-cost housing based on the demand. In Johor, housing provision is very crucial due to urbanization.
The supply of houses seems to be swamping the demand for luxury condos and houses, especially in Johor Bharu. Time series data on low-cost housing demand have been converted to Ln before developing the model. The actual data and forecasted data will be compared and validated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). After that, the results using the ARIMA method will be compared with the ANN method. The results show that MAPE analysis for ARIMA is 15.39% while ANN is 18.27%. It can be concluded that the ARIMA model can forecast low-cost housing demand in Johor quite good.
Thus the aim of this study is to predict low-cost housing demand in Johor, Malaysia using ARIMA model. Time series data on low-cost housing demand have been converted to Ln before develop the model. The actual data and forecasted data will be compared and validate using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). After that, the results using ARIMA method will be compared with ANN method. The results show that MAPE analysis for ARIMA is 15.39% while ANN is 18.27%. It can be conclude that ARIMA model can forecast low cost housing demand in Johor quite good.
Low Cost Housing Demand In Malaysia:
One of Malaysia’s longstanding development objectives is the provision of affordable housing for Malaysian, with a focus on lower-income groups. Low cost housing can be defined as a development projects sold at the price set by the government that is between RM25, 000 to RM42, 000. Low cost housing built is intended to provide housing that is affordable for low earners in rural and suburban areas. The target groups for this project are households with monthly income of between RM500 to RM750.
Affordable Housing For Malaysia:
To provide adequate housing and affordable for Malaysians, especially for those with low incomes has become the main agenda through Malaysia plans prior to now. However, there is mismatched data between the supply and demand for low-cost housing in Malaysia. In some places, the supplies of low cost housing are exceeding compare to demand and lead to wastage of construction and of course has an impact on the cost and economic aspects. While in other areas the demand is exceeding supply provided, which supplies low-cost houses are insufficient, especially in urban areas. Therefore, an alternative approaches need to be done to resolve these issues.
Scope and Limitation of Study:
This study will focuses on forecasting low cost housing demand in Johor, Malaysia only. Previous time series data from will be used to forecast low-cost housing demand in Johor using ARIMA model.
Methodology:
The time series data were changed to Ln then analyzed using ARIMA software adopted from SPSS 20.0. Results were validated using MAPE where actual and forecasted data were compared to determine the accuracy of the model. Finally, the MAPE value will be compared to establish the performance of model.
Conclusion:
Since the MAPE value is less than 20%, it can be conclude that ARIMA model can predict low-cost housing demand in Johor quite good. It is recommend further study should be done to reduce the error of performance since the results generated are able to assist the construction of low-cost housing scheme in terms of the accuracy of necessity based on actual demand. Subsequently there would be a minimal possibility of the procurement of either under-construction or over construction of low cost houses particularly in the state of Johor.
Also Read: Measuring Housing Affordability Using Residual Income Method for Million-plus Cities in India