House price bubbles and discovered more than 1 million hits. Obviously, concern about the possibility of a serious house-price decline is on the minds of many. Like many prognosticators on house-price trends, we are less concerned about the bursting of a national house-price bubble. This seems remote since, in our view, house prices are driven by and large by local supply-and-demand conditions. However, we do see evidence in some metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of house-price levels above those likely to be sustainable given the current or most-likely scenarios for economic fundamentals. In these MSAs, the bursting of “tiny bubbles” is a distinct possibility. (We are writing this article in Hawaii, and assign inspiration for this term to the memorable song “Tiny Bubbles,” which was written and performed by popular Hawaiian singer Don Ho.) Our purpose in this article is to offer a specific metric to quantify concerns about these tiny bubbles in particular markets. The proposed metric is a cred-it-risk spread (CRS), and is an illustration of the ongoing and great innovation that is transforming mortgage markets today’s risk-based pricing of mortgages. Normally, risk-based pricing refers to the additional yield or spread that lenders require in order to make a loan to a subprime borrower with a low FICO® score or for loans with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. However, we adapted the notion of risk-based pricing and the CRS to address the following question: How much additional spread would a lender require in a market with a greater likelihood of a tiny bubble bursting, than in one in which house prices seem more in line with the fundamental drivers of house prices.