Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements & Housing

acash

Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements and Housing
ACASH

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Document TypeGeneral
Publish Date19/09/2013
Author
Published ByInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)
Edited ByTabassum Rahmani
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Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of market conditions but are not suitable as early warning indicators. Total credit and liabilities convey similar information and perform better as early warning indicators, but liabilities are more transparent and the decomposition between core and non-core liabilities convey additional useful information. Finding a set of early warning indicators that can signal vulnerability to financial turmoil has emerged as a policy goal of paramount importance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. There is a large literature on early warning indicators for crises, described well in Chamon and Crowe (2012). The emerging economy crises of the 1990s gave impetus to the work, which has been further developed in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis that engulfed the advanced economies as well as emerging economies. For instance, it has been conventional to distinguish emerging economy crises from those for advanced economies, with a different set of variables entering into the exercise for each category, where emerging economy crises focus on capital flow reversals associated with “sudden stops”, for which variables such as external borrowing denominated in foreign currency takes center stage, while for advanced economies housing booms and household leverage take on importance. Claessens, Dell’Ariccia, Igan and Laeven (2010) examine the evidence for the recent financial crisis.

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