Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements & Housing

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Relationships between Real Estate Markets and Economic Growth in Vietnam

This study analyses the relationship between the real estate market and economic growth in Vietnam, a country with a fledgling real estate market. Research data included economic growth rate and growth rate of the real estate market in Vietnam. The research used quarterly data for the period from 2005: Q1 to 2018: Q1. With the characteristics of Vietnam, there has been no real estate index up to now; therefore, the research used data on growth rates of the real estate market. In addition, the real estate market in Vietnam is still young, so the data series is very short, which is a limitation of this research. With qualitative and quantitative methods especially with the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model; the results of the study indicate new findings, unlike previous studies, including: (1) The real estate market positively impacts Vietnam’s economic growth, most noticeably in the second quarter lag and the fourth quarter lag, and then its trend impacts inversely; (2) The real estate market and economic growth in Vietnam have fluctuated over time with many risks that are affected by the past shocks of these factors. From these findings, we proposed some managerial implications for managing the real estate market with economic growth in Vietnam sustainably. A real estate market crisis can have a major impact on the economy, and the collapse of the real estate market is a decisive factor for many economic crises (Li & Chen, 2015; Zhao, Zhan, Jiang, & Pan, 2017). The housing market is an important part of the real estate market; some previous studies have investigated the relationship between the volatility of the economy and the real estate market, while many other studies have explored this relationship with the housing market (representing the real estate market).

Evidence shows that from the beginning of the 17th century to the 19th century, there were 42 major financial crises in the world, of which 21 crises related to the uncertainty of the housing market; this proves that there is a strong correlation between the housing market and macroeconomic indicators (Zhang, Li, Hui, & Li, 2016). In another study, Zhao et al. (2017) suggested that downturns in the real estate market have triggered most of the financial crises that have occurred in the past two decades. These financial crises later spread to other sectors, making it difficult for economic development. Researchers and policy-makers have therefore paid attention to the relationship between the real estate market and economic turmoil (Bouchouicha & Ftiti, 2012; Li & Chen, 2015).

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