Relative Attraction Of Cities And Inter-City Migration In Pakistan
Introduction:
The study provides both descriptive as well as regression analysis explaining the relative dominance of one city over another, to attract migration from other cities. The empirical analysis reveals that the relative size of the informal sector in a city and the magnitude of the flow of foreign direct investment towards these cities foster in-migration. Empirical assessment is based on two estimation techniques, the generalized method of moments (GMM) and Tobit regression.
The techniques examine migration patterns across 14 major cities focusing over a time period of 7 years. It is found that the labor market variables (expected wages, employment, and unemployment rate) and regional economic contribution have a strong significant influence on inter-city migration flows. Distance, as suggested by the gravity model, and years of education, reflect human capital, and have a positive significant impact on migration flows across cities.
Methodological Design:
The methodological design adopted in this research for the empirical analysis includes descriptive as well as regression analysis. Descriptive analysis involve an examination of relationships in terms of data presented in tabular form while the regression analysis determines the inferential strength and magnitude of the factors explaining intercity migration along the relationship of these factors with the dependent variable.
Descriptive Analysis:
The main contribution of this research is analyzing the attractiveness and the relative attractiveness of cities in stimulating migration from one city to another. For this a detailed descriptive analysis is performed. To understand individual city dynamics various characteristics of a city are considered which includes inter and intra city migration flows, economic participation of cities, employment opportunities, positive and negative amenities that each city holds.
Regression Analysis:
This research targets the difference in one city from another in order to define migration across cities. The purpose is served by taking differenced variables representing city characteristics and analyze their impact on city-wise net migration for the major 14 cities in Pakistan over a period of 7 years using gravity model. Net migration is the difference of out-migration (emigrants) from in-migration (immigrants) All variables in this regression model are used in difference form (destination value — origin value) so as to represent the gap between destinations and origins for a given variable.
Migration and Economic City Size:
Size of a city plays an important role in defining in-migration of a city. Size of a city is usually measured in terms of real GDP produced by a city. Cities with relatively greater economic size tend to experience more in migration.
Size of Informal Sector and In Migration:
Migration and the size of informal sector are positively linked to one another. Existence of a large informal sector is a strong driver for attracting unskilled labour migration especially. Informal sector and migration flows in major cities are tabulated below, sorted in ascending order with respect to the size of informal sector hold by the cities on average.
City Amenities Influencing Migration:
City amenities play an important role in grabbing migrants from various destinations. Positive amenities such as financial intermediaries, education, health and recreational opportunities tend to increase in-migration. While, the view from other side of the mirror, negative area amenities like crime rate and congestion are repulsive in nature. It is more economical and viable for the public and private sector both to incur overheads for providing such social services to masses because of relatively lower unit costs rather than to those divergent over geographical limits of an area.
City-wise Migration: Within and Across Cities:
The forthcoming table enlightens our understandings about migration with-in and between cities. Out of total in-migration in these cities 29.19 percent and 25.51 percent migration is intra city migration as per the average.
Conclusion:
This research is designed to explore and explain the inter-city migration patterns in Pakistan. Migration is a major contributor towards the rapid urbanization than natural population increase. Migration is derived by various push and pull factors at various origins and destinations. Desire to be economically prosperous motivates individuals to move towards area with relatively better economic and social environment offering a better standard of living. Hence, they move from relatively less urbanized areas to highly urbanized and modernized areas.
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