Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements & Housing

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Document Type General
Publish Date 07/03/2008
Author
Published By University of Maryland and the NBER
Edited By Tabassum Rahmani
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The 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis is Different An International Historical Comparison

The first major financial crisis of the 21st century involves esoteric instruments, unaware regulators, and skittish investors. It also follows a well-trodden path laid down by centuries of financial folly. Is the “special” problem of sub-prime mortgages this time really different? Our examination of the longer historical record, which is part of a larger effort on currency and debt crises, finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels across a number of standard financial crisis indicators. To name a few, the run-up in U.S. equity and housing prices that Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart (1999) find to be the best leading indicators of crisis in countries experiencing large capital inflows closely tracks the average of the previous eighteen post-World War II banking crises in industrial countries. So, too, does the inverted -shape of real growth in the years prior to the crisis. Despite widespread concern about the effects on national debt of the early 2000s tax cuts, the run-up in U.S. public debt is actually somewhat below the average of other crisis episodes. In contrast, the pattern of United States current account deficits is markedly worse.

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