Advisory Center for Affordable Settlements & Housing

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Document Type General
Publish Date 31/08/2010
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Published By THE WHARTON REAL ESTATE
Edited By Tabassum Rahmani
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THE DELEVERAGING OF GLOBAL REAL ESTATE

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Document Type: General
Publish Date: 2010
Primary Author: J A C Q UES N. GORDON
Edited By: Tabassum Rahmani
Published By: THE WHARTON REAL ESTATE

The Capital intensive asset class such as real estate depends on diverse sources of financing to function effectively. An abundance of cheap debt causes unsustainably high asset pricing and stimulates overbuilding. Too little debt leads to bankruptcies and under-investment in the building stock needed to serve a modern economy. In the last four years, commercial real estate debt has moved from one extreme to the other, which has been highly detrimental to the performance of real estate as an asset class. Real estate is certainly not the only industry or asset class affected by the bursting of the “credit bubble.” A global review of commercial real estate debt markets reveals that commercial real estate has many peculiar features in each market. Each country has its own story to tell. And like the aftermath of a natural disaster, courageous tales of debt “survivors” can be found among the death and destruction of global loan portfolios. Despite the idiosyncratic nature of commercial real estate debt in different countries, common patterns can be observed. First, to mix a metaphor, the bursting of the commercial real estate debt bubble has a very long tail. Second, unsecured real estate debt is recovering well ahead of secured, mortgage finance. Third, highly structured debt creates the most difficulties to resolve. Fourth, national governments, central banks and regulators are having a major impact on the future re-alignment of commercial real estate debt markets. The resolution of legacy commercial real estate debt and the return of a normally functioning commercial mortgage market will be two of the biggest issues facing investors (as both a challenge and an opportunity) for years to come in the G-20 countries. Our analysis is based on a country-by country survey of when and how the debt markets might recover. There is relative certainty that fundamentals in many western countries will remain weak for the next two to five years. However, there is great uncertainty about what might happen in the debt markets over this same time frame. The three major categories of uncertainty are: the impact of legacy loans on the market and the degree to which this will lead to distressed sales; the timing of a return to a “normal” lending environment and what those “normal” conditions might look like; and the future of base rates and credit spreads in both the secured and the unsecured markets.

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