Urbanization Trends in South Asia The Case of Karachi, Pakistan

• Unprecedented migration
• Densification of informal settlements (due to necessity)
• Densification of formally planned areas (speculation with government support)
• The impact of neo-liberal policies: Housing to be accessed from the market
• Increasing housing-supply gap (not in percentage terms but in numbers)
• Socio-economic and physical changes in the old settlements
• The increasing inadequacy of expensive transport infrastructure
• Increasing unemployment
• The emergence of the urban region
• The politics of ethnicity and its impact on governance

Population
– 435,887 (in 1941) 22,000,000 (in 2011)
– Karachi contains (1998 figures): 10% of Pakistan’s total population and 25% of Pakistan’s urban population

Literacy: 76%
– Literacy age group 15-24 years: 92% (No difference between male and female literacy)
– Major source of information: Television 77% of households

Economy
– Karachi is Pakistan’s only port
– It contributes 20% of the country’s GDP and 62% of income tax
– 40% of employment in large-scale manufacturing is located in Karachi’s 4,500 formal sector industrial units
– 75% of the working population is employed in the informal sector in garment, leather, textile, carpet and light engineering works

• In 1947, at Independence, Karachi had a population of 450,000
• Today, it has an estimated population of about 22 million on the basis of the
2011 house count. This is contested
• This makes it the fastest-growing city in the world. In numerical terms, no other city in history has grown faster.
• The increase in population has been due predominately because of migration from India at the time of Partition and subsequent migration from other parts of Pakistan including migrations from Bangladesh, Burma, Afghanistan, Iran
• A large but undocumented increase has taken place due to conflict in the KP and due to natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, and drought) since 2005
• The migration-created housing demand has not been met with the result that over 62% of the households in Karachi live in informally created settlements (katchi abadis) which have changed over time
• Karachi is a non-Sindhi-speaking capital of a Sindhi-speaking province. This is the cause of the politics of ethnicity and resulting governance-related conflicts (Urdu 46% – Punjabi 14% – Pushto 20% – Sindhi 11%)

• Earlier migrations (1951 – 80) from stable societies that had functioning community systems of governance
• Migrants made a conscious decision to migrate to improve their livelihoods and families back home
• The caste and profession link and barter made community governance and village self-sufficiency possible
• Present migration is from societies where community governance systems have collapsed or have no moral authority
• The village today is entirely dependent on urban-produced goods which the poor cannot afford
• Migration remains the only option
• The collapse of the caste-profession link and community governance systems provide social and economic mobility not available before
• Population increase (by 600% since 1943) which the village economy cannot absorb

• They are coming to an unwelcoming city where no social housing or regularization of new settlements is promoted unlike before

• Land is no longer available for informal settlements near the city

• Unskilled labor is becoming redundant due to mechanization and digital technology. Case of the building industry: A medium-sized excavation machine replaces 80 persons

• The creation of circulating populations (between sowing and harvesting) and the emergence of a new underclass

• Migrants from regional conflicts and natural disasters (not going back)

• Housing demand: 120,000 per year
• Formal sector housing supply: 42,000 per year (Average over last 5 years)
• Accommodated in katchi abadis: 32,000 per year
• Rest accommodated through densification of existing homes and by increasingly squatting on pavements, under bridges and flyovers, and on open spaces. This did not happen before
• The issue of densification
• 1.7 million households will be added to Karachi’s population between 2005 and 2020 (government figures). This means a supply of 100,000 units per year
• This is not possible with current government policies so informal settlements (katchi abadis) will continue to grow and densify
• Problems in estimating demand-supply gap